The Great Gibson's Debate!
Seymour,
Just out of idle curiousity, do you actually read a word of what I write?
You have both my heart rate and Michael's heart rate for the entire Gibson's half marathon race for comparison. However, and as I pointed out about ten times, Michael and I had two very different strategies for using the Gibson's race in preparation for Vancouver.
Michael had never run a race longer than a 10K. He was very interested (some might say obsessed) in putting some of his pacing data to the test. Hence, he went out like a house on fire. A very impressive debut to say the least. He would be the first to say he could not have held the pace he did for another 21K. He did a 41 minute 10K after all!
I, on the other hand, am fully cognizant of what it is like to go out and race for 40K or 50K or 70K. I was interested in finding out if I could hold a 3:30 pace at my MARATHON RACE PACE for the 21.1K of the Gibson's Race If you look at the chart of my heart rate, you can see that I had a 5-7% cushion in the entire Gibson's race. And I did not hit 160 until 28 minutes into the race. (I love all these colours!)
Despite that, Rachel and I still did the first 10K in 44:14.
See Data:
Based on our calculations, you could perform at these times over these distances. If you are in much better shape than expected in our theoretical model, then your times will be less spread out. Conversely, if you are in worse shape then your times may be more dispersed.
5K 0:21:07
5M 0:34:51
10K 0:44:14 - Yes, we did it!
10M 1:13:01
Half Marathon 1:38:05
Marathon 3:25:25 - Dear God, let it Happen!
And if you want to make your own race prediction, go here - http://www.marathonguide.com/fitnesscalcs/predictcalc.cfm
In fact Michael went out SO FAST (he deliberately wanted to see how long he could hold a 10K pace), that I suspect that if he had paced himself for a half marathon, he might have broken 1:30, and certainly would on a flatter course.
So Seymour, I am begging you, please bet a bottle of wine on Michael to beat me in Vancouver by more than 12 minutes. I am working on my wine cellar.
Last night, in celebration of his debut performance in an endurance race, Michael had his first bottle of beer in 5 months. We also killed a couple of bottles of Bailey's in our coffees at the post-race buffet...
But I digress. In our eagerness to do well a group of us have sworn off alcohol until after the Vancouver Marathon. So Rachel, Michael and I won't be consuming another drop until after the race.
It's getting serious now!
Just out of idle curiousity, do you actually read a word of what I write?
You have both my heart rate and Michael's heart rate for the entire Gibson's half marathon race for comparison. However, and as I pointed out about ten times, Michael and I had two very different strategies for using the Gibson's race in preparation for Vancouver.
Michael had never run a race longer than a 10K. He was very interested (some might say obsessed) in putting some of his pacing data to the test. Hence, he went out like a house on fire. A very impressive debut to say the least. He would be the first to say he could not have held the pace he did for another 21K. He did a 41 minute 10K after all!
I, on the other hand, am fully cognizant of what it is like to go out and race for 40K or 50K or 70K. I was interested in finding out if I could hold a 3:30 pace at my MARATHON RACE PACE for the 21.1K of the Gibson's Race If you look at the chart of my heart rate, you can see that I had a 5-7% cushion in the entire Gibson's race. And I did not hit 160 until 28 minutes into the race. (I love all these colours!)
Despite that, Rachel and I still did the first 10K in 44:14.
See Data:
Based on our calculations, you could perform at these times over these distances. If you are in much better shape than expected in our theoretical model, then your times will be less spread out. Conversely, if you are in worse shape then your times may be more dispersed.
5K 0:21:07
5M 0:34:51
10K 0:44:14 - Yes, we did it!
10M 1:13:01
Half Marathon 1:38:05
Marathon 3:25:25 - Dear God, let it Happen!
And if you want to make your own race prediction, go here - http://www.marathonguide.com/fitnesscalcs/predictcalc.cfm
In fact Michael went out SO FAST (he deliberately wanted to see how long he could hold a 10K pace), that I suspect that if he had paced himself for a half marathon, he might have broken 1:30, and certainly would on a flatter course.
So Seymour, I am begging you, please bet a bottle of wine on Michael to beat me in Vancouver by more than 12 minutes. I am working on my wine cellar.
Last night, in celebration of his debut performance in an endurance race, Michael had his first bottle of beer in 5 months. We also killed a couple of bottles of Bailey's in our coffees at the post-race buffet...
But I digress. In our eagerness to do well a group of us have sworn off alcohol until after the Vancouver Marathon. So Rachel, Michael and I won't be consuming another drop until after the race.
It's getting serious now!
posted by Vince Hemingson at 11:18 AM
15 Comments:
It is not only how you guys did in Gibson's, but how you train for the
Marathon from here to the end. Michael will likely over-train,IE, not realize he needs to adjust for running so fast and he won't realize it until the 20 mile mark [the wall point]. My bottle is still on Vince.
I have taken a $100 bet that I will break my four hour time this time out in the marathon. I am looking forward to the Second Narrows Bridge heart rate reading this coming weekend. If it
is lower then 150, then I'm in for the money!
Seymour,
Can I just buy an empty glass and fill it up with all the beer and wine being exchanged in friendly wagers?
"Running the marathon as a blood sport!!"
The unfortunate reality is that after the Gibson's race, you should all have been drinking Gibson's Finest. But as I did not attend, I suppose I'm not in any position to criticize...
Nicely done Michael & Vince, this is shaping up to be an entertaining race for May 1st. Maybe I'll have to go out with a PB 10K pace and wear Michael out. =-)
Vince,
Did I miss a posting of the graphs of your run? Anyway, nice run. Good sense dictates that you don't race (much) in training, and you are following that. Based on what you're saying, that 3:30 can be yours. I'm having some knee trouble, but don't think it is serious...ran 23ish on Sun, and knee started talking on Mon.
Meantime, I think you do OK...whether you have the base to hold up well on the marathon (at BQ pace) is iffy, but you're really close.
Meantime, regarding your bet, my money's on you. I think Michael (?) will be brave (and foolish) and have, shall we say, a learning experience.
Meantime, the predictor says that based on my half (since it wouldn't calc from a 20K, that was my better race) puts me at a 3:17ish time. (If only the knee keeps quiet!)
Hi Scooter,
Always thoroughly enjoy your comments. Please elaborate on the "base" comments. Initially I wanted to run a 3:40 in Vancouver and then do a 3:30 in the fall to qualify for Boston, but my speedwork improved so much, I made a decision to go for a 3:30 in May.
I also thought it was worth it to get familiar with the pace I will need to qualify for Boston even if I don't succeed on the first attempt.
By "not enough" base do you mean weekly mileage? My highest weekly mileage was 68 (last week before Gibson's). And I did 7 weeks of 55-65. My last long run this Sunday will be 50K (30 miles).
My own feeling is that if I do not qualify on this first attempt, I will concentrate on doing intervals over the summer and getting my 10K time down to 40 minutes.
I ran a 36:10 10K when I was 28 and 178 pounds, so trimming down over the summer will also be a priority. I seem stuck at about 196-197 right now. I hope to be much closer to 190 by May 1st.
Hope your knee feels much better very soon. Are you getting any treatment for it? And is this a first or have you had knee troubles in the past?
Best, Vince
Vince,
Part of building the base is strengthen connective tissues and having the body acclimate to those kinds of loads. Your recent mileage is strong (stronger than I realized), but I don't know how sudden your buildup was - you tend to gain strength (both physical and mental) with long timeframes of higher mileage.
It does sound like the 3:30 is a very real possibility, and I'm glad to hear you're going for it.
As far as my knee, it's the first time I've had trouble from running (I injured a tendon in this knee from biking back in the '80's, but it is not in the are thats being difficult.)
By the way, I keep thinking that the pictures of you in the "white whale" series looked quite young. How long ago was that?
Finally, on the weight issue, the general rule is that excess weight costs you 2 sec/mile/lb or so. If you drop some weight, it will buy you more speed, but don't diet now, you don't want to risk weakening muscles. OK if you drop 3 or 4 by race, but w/o trying. If you want to go after the weight, do it while training for fall marathon.
Vince,
Check out this article I found referenced on Runner's World.com - it brought tears to my eyes. I hope the link works: http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/05/04/07/100spo_marathoner001.cfm
Great story, Scooter. I forwarded it to everyone in my marathon clinic.
Back to base. Vancouver will be my ninth marathon in five years, plus I've run another half dozen halfs and a few ultramarathons.
In the past two years I have been consistently ramping up my mileage to 60 miles a week and going out to 30 miles on my LSD run.
My 10K times have been dropping steadily in training this spring. Every Friday, knocking them off in 44-46 minutes.
What thinks you?
The Great White Whale shots were taken in the Fall of 2000.
I am incredibly well-preserved. I think it is because my liver has been routinely dipped in alcohol...
Vince,
Check out this article I found referenced on Runner's World.com - it brought tears to my eyes. I hope the link works: http://www.heraldnet.com/stories/05/04/07/100spo_marathoner001.cfm
Oops - I got flaky and posted twice. Ignore the last post.
I think you're likely to make it. The more I learn about you, the more I realize that you're a thorough guy who leaves very few stones unturned. It'll really come down to your head, and I think you've got the experience to tough it out.
Thanks, Scooter.
The only variable which I have really failed to address and correct is my weight.
But I won't lose more than 3-4 pounds before the marathon.
Save the last fifteen pounds for the summer. Even if I do qualify.
It will just make it easier on my legs to train.
And after qualify for Boston I'd like to work towards a 40 minute 10K.
Vince,
I'd been drifting around a 20:30 5k and 42ish 10K for a while. I did some kids coaching and to set an example, I did the quarters with them. Several weeks later, at a 5K, I got to the mile in 6:05 and started asking myself, "Am I going to blow up?", but I felt OK, so kept at it. I popped out a 19:23 that day for about a 50 sec. PR and it felt relatively easy. Do your track work and your gait will change and the sub 40:00 will be yours.
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